Will the President’s approval rating doom Democrats in 2010?

Posted by: Brian Hull in Barack Obama

Simple answer: yes.  What remains to be seen is just how many seats will be lost.

While Obama had soaring approval ratings immediately after his inauguration, since early in March, for the first time his disapproval is higher than his approval.

Why does this matter for the mid-term Congressional elections?  More than anything else, there is a strong correlation between a president's approval rating and the number of seats lost in mid-term elections.

Because Obama will need about a 68% approval rating (statistically speaking) to maintain the same number of Democrats in Congress.  The more his approval rating drops, the more Congressional seats the Democrats will probably lose in November. 

My guess is that Democrats will lose about 40 seats… unless they get something done that Americans want and Obama can claim a strong victory.  I don't see that happening though.

 

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Megawatt
at wits end...
written by Megawatt, March 15, 2010
I agree with Brian that this is the likely outcome. What I find so frustrating is that the Democrats get in after a long fight, and a country that wants change, and then prodeed to waffle on EVERYTHING, yet again. They need to Get a message and Stay on message. Did they not learn anything from the many years of Republican 'simple' messages. Repeat the same thing over and over and people will get it.

Once again, I don't think most of them deserve to be elected due to their lack of listening to the constituency that got them into office.

Where is the 'leadership' in the Democratic party? Maybe if they actually did their job in serving the public rather than being self-serving to stay in power, they might actually get something done and reap the rewards.

DeusEx
...
written by DeusEx, March 15, 2010
Blue team rotates out.
Red team rotates in.

The self-perpetuating cycle continues and government gets bigger and bigger.

I look forward to hearing the Democrats co-opt libertarian messages to get elected again once the currently libertarian-talking Republicans seize power and change back into the authoritarians they always were.

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
grumpy old man
Will Rogers
written by grumpy old man, March 15, 2010
Reminds me of what Will Rogers said: "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat." Guess the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Megawatt
how do WE change it
written by Megawatt, March 15, 2010
DeusEx: I just want to know how we change it. I am not particularly a huge fan of the liberatarian stance either. (though there is something to learn from all stances)

I don't mind government being involved as the Leviathan it is, such as with: healthcare and other social structures that serve the people. It is the social contract that I think we signed on for. However, it seems to me that this government IS the Levaithan that the people need protection from. It is a hot mess!
is it a lost cause.

I suppose this is all the signs that fall of the Empire is on its way. I am relegated to that fact, however, I'd like to at least have a game plan that ends the cycle of authoratarianism that, I agree with you, exits with the Republican party. I call it 'Fascism lite'...with fear at the base of it.

So, how do We make effectual change??
forsanri
not the rating
written by forsanri, March 15, 2010
President Obama is dooming Democrats Brian. The ratings are just a reflection of Obama's failure.
DeusEx
...
written by DeusEx, March 15, 2010
Megawatt-

The short answer is: you can't change the system. The system is the system. It is set up so to be impossible to really change. The Republicans and Democrats have set up their two-partner political monopoly and have passed all sorts of rules, on the books and off, to keep out anybody who might threaten their self-serving corporatist system. Most people in this country self-identify as socially liberal and fiscally conservative, yet the only choices we have for office are socially liberal and fiscally liberal, or socially conservative and fiscally conservative. The disconnect is glaring.

Government in the United States has never gotten smaller, not once in all its history. It has only ever grown itself. All attempts to stop it or even slow it down have failed. It will continue to grow until it collapses and drastically reorganizes. Not in a Mad Max post-apocalyptic way, of course, but if something cannot continue indefinitely, like bacteria multiplying in a jar, it will eventually crash out of necessity, and the federal government certainly cannot keep growing indefinitely. Even right now, in the worst recession since the Great Depression, the federal government is multiplying its agencies and going on a massive hiring spree. It's totally unsustainable.

The Free State Project is the only viable alternative of which I have ever heard. The idea is to get all the "sane" people, who don't want leviathan exponentially growing government, to move to one area (NH was selected by vote), keep government limited and functional and wait out the coming storm. The Project just hit 10,000 members a couple of days ago, half of the 20,000 required before the big move to New Hampshire occurs. So far around 800-1000 "early movers" have decided to move early on their own, and those individuals have already had a huge effect in influencing the state legislature and changing minds toward limited government on a local level. There is political activism going on, people being elected to the state legislature and local offices, and even mass civil disobedience (check out the nationally covered 4:20 protests that occur daily in Keene and Manchester). When 20,000 people move, probably around 5-10 years from now, the effects will be huge. Secession will eventually become a realistic option, but hopefully short of that it will serve as a much-needed counterexample, counterweight, and alternative for what is going on federally.
right_of_center
Flip?
written by right_of_center, March 15, 2010
Brian, with that 40 number, are you predicting a flip of control to the Republicans in the House? Or are you predicting a total of 40 in both the House and Senate, meaning the Dems will keep control of both, but it'll be extremely tight?
jsmitty
Vote Third Party
written by jsmitty, March 15, 2010
What if you started a "Vote Third Party" movement, or more accurately, "Don't Vote RepubliCrat!?"

Urge people to vote for a 3rd Party. Doesn't matter which - Socialist, Fascist, Cool Moose, Libertarian, write in. Who cares? The idea is not that the 3rd Party Candidate would win, but that a huge chunk of the electorate is rejecting BOTH parties.

Imagine how much fun it would be to watch local, state and national elections being turned on their ear because the majority of voters didn't vote for either party. Oh, the pandering that would ensue as they try and figure out which 3rd party voters are voting for and why, and how it will tip the election.

Do that for a few cycles and maybe the two major do-nothing parties we have will be reminded that they are accountable to the voters to actually do something - namely Republicans should act like Republicans and Democrats should act like Democrats, instead of them both acting like whores to their lobbyists.

Oh yeah, and fully publicly funded elections and outlawing lobbying (read bribing and influence peddling) would help too.
DeusEx
...
written by DeusEx, March 15, 2010
Sounds great in theory, jsmitty. Too bad in practice the two-headed corporatist hydra will never let it happen. No politician is going to bite the hand that makes them rich and powerful by publicly funding elections or outlawing lobbying. They will also not allow third parties or even divergent candidates within their own parties to participate in the debates (look at what happened to Ron Paul in the 2008 election). Government-run schools don't help people break out of the D-R group-think mentality either.

I've heard the same thing from lots of 3rd party organizers who have been at it for decades: you can't change the system from within, the system is designed to keep you out and perpetuate itself. The other thing they seem to agree upon is that the Free State Project is the first real chance at changing things they've ever seen. I'm signed up, if you want to be a part of history you should sign up too. There are former D's, former R's, no central platform. All you have to agree to is to work to reduce the overall size of government.
grumpy old man
Comparison w/Great Depression
written by grumpy old man, March 15, 2010
Deus Ex, your wrote: "Even right now, in the worst recession since the Great Depression, the federal government is multiplying its agencies and going on a massive hiring spree. It's totally unsustainable."

During the Great Depression, federal agencies multiplied like crazy. Remember the alphabet soup agencies (CCC, WPA, NRA, etc.)? And FDR spent money like it was going out of style. What's different today is the feds are spending money on all the wrong projects. Obama should press for a jobs program like the CCC and restoration of Glass Steagall to re-regulate Wall Street.
DeusEx
...
written by DeusEx, March 15, 2010
You're right, Grumpy Old Man. If they were trying to do some kind of Keynesian pump-priming through public works projects, that would at least have some economic justification for the expansionism and reckless spending. I'm not a Keynesian, but the benefits of such programs as they had in the 30's would at least be debatable and have some benefits, although I personally believe the hidden costs would outweigh them. In any case, that isn't what they are doing. They are multiplying permanent cubicle jobs in agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of State. After the recession ends, those jobs will still be there and the spending required to maintain them will still be out of control. The kind of jobs they are creating now are totally redundant and never, ever get cut.
grumpy old man
Public works projects
written by grumpy old man, March 15, 2010
And, Deus, creation of a WPA and/or CCC would have the added benefit of repairing our nation's infrastructure, which we badly need. Why can't the Obama folks see that? What's wrong with copying some of the New Deal programs? They helped us survive the Great Depression. In the long run, it was really World War II that got us out of the economic pits, so it is debatable whether all of FDR's spending worked. But at least the programs put people back to work. The Obama stimulus program is not doing that.
parared
On the other hand
written by parared, March 15, 2010
doesn't it seem that using 'New Deal' level government intrusion a little heavy handed, since we are nowhere near the great depression?
Megawatt
parared...
written by Megawatt, March 15, 2010
do you really believe we are 'nowhere near the great depression?'
I think we are, but as long as you keep calling it a recession, it maintains wall street not crashing due to lack of confidence, otherwise as far as unemployment and a growing disparity between rich and poor; I would say this is quite close to a great depression. What happens when Greece and Iceland default?
It is not a pretty outlook out there. I think capitalism as it is needs an overhaul along with our government.
DeusEx
...
written by DeusEx, March 15, 2010
"I would say this is quite close to a great depression."

Agreed. There is no reason why a 1920's depression would look exactly like a 2010's depression. I've been referring to what we are in as a "modern depression," seems to fit well and convey the right meaning. One major difference is that there wasn't really a credit crunch in this depression like there was in the Great Depression. Credit lending practices simply returned to their former and far more responsible lending criteria. It was a correction, not a crunch, which is why all the government spurred credit loans and bailouts made no sense.

"I think capitalism as it is needs an overhaul along with our government."

We need to return to real free-enterprise capitalism instead of the corporatist, centrally-planned abomination we have now which privatizes profits and collectivizes losses and ties all banks together nationally through a central bank so that they all fail together. Free banking would be an excellent start, it has been very successful when it has been tried.
Evan
Comments
written by Evan, March 16, 2010
For some reason I am now unable to see comments!
Evan
Nevermind
written by Evan, March 16, 2010
They're back now.
PinkHatLib
The short answer
written by PinkHatLib, March 16, 2010
"The short answer is: you can't change the system."

Bull! In fact, it's your duty as a citizen of a democracy to change the system if you believe it to be corrupt.

"God offers everyone his choice between truth and repose. Take which you please--you can never have both." Emerson
PinkHatLib
No, not in theory
written by PinkHatLib, March 16, 2010
"Sounds great in theory, jsmitty. Too bad in practice the two-headed corporatist hydra will never let it happen."

So institute a national referendum process and take back the control (recommended reading "Give Me Liberty").
http://www.amazon.com/Give-Me-Liberty-Handbook-Revolutionaries/dp/1416590560

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