City Councilman John Lombardi early last month commissioned a Zogby poll which shows that a successful run for Mayor could be within his grasp.  Lombardi commissioning a poll can only mean one thing: he’s ready to officially jump in, but wants to see if he can win.  Lombardi's campaign website makes a “breaking news” reference about an announcement to be made next month. 

On Wednesday, February 17, John Lombardi will make a formal announcement regarding his personal political future. John's decision is certain to have a major, long-term, and positive impact on the future of Providence and all who hold a stake in the economic, educational, and cultural well-being of our city.

Forgetting the ridiculousness of “breaking news” that will be announced in 6 weeks, a safe bet is that he officially declares then.

While he hasn’t released a copy of the poll, the ProJo has some of the results.

A poll of more than 500 registered city voters by New York-based pollster Zogby International found that 45 percent believed Cicilline “deserved” reelection while another 41 percent did not (14 percent said they were not sure), said Lombardi.

In terms of job performance, 42 percent of those polled felt Lombardi was doing a “somewhat,” “slightly,” or a “very” favorable job as councilor, while another 16 percent felt that he was doing either a somewhat, slightly or a very unfavorable job, and 42 percent said they were not sure or not familiar with Lombardi, he said.

When asked about Cicilline, 52 percent felt favorably about his job performance, while 46 percent felt unfavorably, and 2 percent were not sure or not familiar with Cicilline, Lombardi said.

These results differ slightly from the early December poll conducted by the Taubman Center for Public Policy at Brown University.  In the Brown poll, Rhode Island residents were asked to rate Mayor Cicilline’s job performance: 7.5% said excellent, 33.3% said good, 25.8% said fair, 21.3% said poor, and 12.1% were non-answers. 

An important consideration is that the Zogby poll surveyed 500 registered city voters, while the Brown poll surveyed 442 registered voters in the state.  For obvious reasons, the Zogby poll should be considered more accurate.  While it’s impossible to convert favorable / unfavorable answers to a scale of excellent to poor (or vice versa), the results demonstrate (to me) that Cicilline may not be as safe as some might think.

With Cicilline’s approval numbers slightly higher than 50%, and having the incumbent advantage, it’ll be an uphill battle for Lombardi.  But with Lombardi’s 42% approval rating on his job performance coupled with another 42% of respondents unsure of who he is, he definitely has a decent shot.  If Cicilline’s approval rating can sink below 50% (or better yet, under 40%), and Lombardi can convert those unknowns to favorable, then he could potentially pull off a victory.

What Lombardi needs to do right now is raise money – lots of it.  As of 3rd quarter, he’s got slightly over $51,000 in his campaign fund.  Compare that to Cicilline’s $715,000 (as of 3Q), and the phrase comparative disadvantage takes on a whole new meaning.   (Note: I’ll try to get 4Q numbers next week.)

Another important point is that Cicilline has much better name recognition, but that can be good and bad.  He has long-standing problems with the city’s firefighters, has mishandled a snowstorm that trapped school kids in busses for hours and gridlocked the city (my wife included), is alienating the city’s working waterfront business community, is suffering through a recession which is taking a huge toll on the city's finances, is hounded for suggesting a $150 impact fee on college students attending the city’s private universities, the recent instances of police brutality aren’t pretty, and I can’t forget to mention the whole issue surrounding the $75,000 bad check issued by his brother John.

These issues make Cicilline vulnerable, and Lombardi should exploit these vulnerabilities at every opportunity if he's serious about winning.  Cicilline gave up on his run for Governor largely because he knew it would be a difficult battle, and probably one he would lose.  He’s trying to play it safe by running for a third term as Mayor of Providence.  Unfortunately for him, his support has been slipping for the past couple years, judging by the Brown University polls.

How would you rate the job David Cicilline is doing as mayor of Providence?

October 14-17, 2006 (a few weeks before Cicilline crushed Dan Harrop in the General Election 83.5 to 16.5%)
Excellent 19%, Good 43%, Only Fair 21%, Poor 6%, Don't Know/No Answer 11%

February 9-10, 2008
Excellent 13%, Good 38%, Only Fair 18%, Poor 14%, Don't Know/No Answer 17%

September 15-16, 2008
Excellent 9.1%; Good 36.9%; Only Fair 24.9%; Poor 18.2%; Don't Know/No Answer 10.9%

February 7-10, 2009
Excellent 5.9%; Good 32.5%; Only Fair 25.7%; Poor 21.7%; Don't Know/No Answer 14.2%

May 18-20, 2009
Excellent 7%; Good 38%; Only Fair 27%; Poor 17%; Don't Know/No Answer 11%

December 4-6, 2009
Excellent 7.5%; Good 33.3%; Only Fair 25.8%; Poor 21.3%; Don’t know/No answer 12.1%

While the above respondents are registered voters in Rhode Island, and are not limited to the city of Providence, it’s safe to assume that this trend in decreasing support for the Mayor would be mirrored among the city’s residents. Cicilline's "excellent" has tanked then creeped back up slightly, his "good" is down by about 23%, his "fair" is up slightly, and his "poor" has skyrocketed.  None of that is good news for him.

It’ll be a tough fight, but if Lombardi can raise some serious money, he could run a competitive campaign against the Mayor – and maybe even beat him.